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Crude oil prices hit $80 again. What does it mean for USD?

Oil surges above $80 amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, pointing to possible supply uncertainty. This rise, alongside a historically negative correlation with USD, has already coincided with a reversal in USD/CAD and other markets.
Source: Bloomberg
Picture of Frank Kaberna
Frank Kaberna
Director of Strategy, Chicago

Data current as of 3/25/2024

Key points

  • Crude oil prices trading near year-to-date highs above $80: (0:53)
  • Russia-Ukraine tensions could affect crude oil supply: (2:03)
  • Crude oil and US dollar negatively correlated: (5:00)
  • USD/CAD reverses amid high oil prices: (6:27)
  • Can crude oil hit $100?: (7:02)

Crude oil prices trading near year-to-date highs above $80

Crude oil prices are surging once again, reaching levels near their year-to-date highs above $80, primarily due to concerns regarding potential supply disruptions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Such increases in oil prices underscore the volatile nature of commodity markets, often influenced by geopolitical tensions and their implications for global supply chains. Traders and investors closely monitor these developments, understanding their potential impact on broader market dynamics.

Russia-Ukraine tensions could affect crude oil supply

The ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine serve as a critical factor for the crude oil market, given Russia's significant role in global oil supply. News impacting supply and demand can drastically affect commodity prices like crude oil, making such geopolitical events a focal point for market participants who aim to gauge future market movements and adjust their strategies accordingly.

Crude oil and US dollar negatively correlated

Historically, crude oil prices and the US dollar exhibit a negative correlation, meaning as oil prices rise, the US dollar tends to weaken, and vice versa. This relationship highlights the interplay between commodity markets and forex trading, where shifts in the value of crucial resources can inversely affect currency valuations, particularly those of commodity-exporting and import-dependent countries.

USD/CAD reverses amid high oil prices

As crude oil prices ascend, USD/CAD has seen a reversal, dipping back below 1.3600. This movement can be attributed to the cooling of the US dollar from its recent highs, and perhaps influenced by rising oil prices. The Canadian dollar, closely tied to oil due to Canada's significant oil export economy, often strengthens with higher oil prices, affecting the USD/CAD exchange rate.

Can crude oil hit $100?

With crude oil prices having reached a peak of $120 in 2022, speculation about the potential for prices to hit $100 again is rife. Such a milestone could have profound implications for the US dollar, considering historical patterns where significant shifts in oil prices were followed by notable reactions in the USD's valuation. These trends offer valuable insights for traders, suggesting that substantial movements in oil markets could precede critical changes in forex markets.

How to trade US dollar

  1. Open an account to get started, or practice on a demo account
  2. Choose your forex trading platform
  3. Open, monitor, and close positions on USD pairs

Trading forex requires an account with a forex provider like tastyfx. Many traders also watch major forex pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY for potential opportunities based on economic events such as inflation releases or interest rate decisions. Economic events can produce more volatility for forex pairs, which can mean greater potential profits and losses as risks can increase at these times.

You can help develop your forex trading strategies using resources like tastyfx’s YouTube channel. Once your strategy is developed, you can follow the above steps to opening an account and getting started trading forex.

Your profit or loss is calculated according to your full position size. Leverage will magnify both your profits and losses. It’s important to manage your risks carefully as losses can exceed your deposit. Ensure you understand the risks and benefits associated with trading leveraged products before you start trading with them. Trade using money you’re comfortable losing.

Reviewed by:
Glen Frybarger
Senior Content Strategist, Chicago

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