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  • EUR/JPY
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How inflation rates affect US dollar value

Explore the dynamics of inflation rates and their impact on purchasing power and commodity prices. Understand how the Federal Reserve's responses to inflation shape the USD's strength against other currencies in the forex market.
Source: Bloomberg
Picture of Frank Kaberna
Frank Kaberna
Director of Strategy, Chicago

Data current as of 4/8/2024

Key points

  • High inflation means increasing prices: (0:35)
  • Currency value falls relative to goods and services: (2:38)
  • How does inflation affect USD in commodity prices?: (4:19)
  • How does inflation affect forex prices?: (6:03)
  • High inflation causing US dollar bull market: (7:08)

High inflation means increasing prices

High inflation signifies a rising trend in the prices of goods and services, indicating a decrease in purchasing power. Inflation rates are crucial for traders as they measure the speed at which these prices increase or decrease; a higher rate means consumers must spend more to acquire the same commodities.

Currency value falls relative to goods and services

With inflation rates climbing, the value of currency diminishes, meaning $100 today might not buy as much in terms of food, energy, and shelter tomorrow. The US uses two metrics, PCE and CPI, that measure two different baskets of goods to gauge the dollar's purchasing power over time. Though the erosion of purchasing power impacts consumer behavior, it also signals strength and a growing economy.

How does inflation affect USD in commodity prices?

Inflation often leads to an increase in commodity prices, such as crude oil and gold, as these tend to offer a hedge against decreased currency value. For the USD, this means that as inflation rises, the prices for commodities priced in dollars could also rise. Understanding this relationship helps traders in the commodities and forex markets make informed decisions.

How does inflation affect forex prices?

Inflation differentials between countries can affect forex prices, with the price of US dollar against other currencies often dependent on relative economic data. Inflation is monitored by central banks that control interest rates directly tied to currency demand. High inflation can be an indicator of a robust and growing economy, which can bolster a currency's value.

High inflation causing US dollar bull market

In recent years, high US inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates more aggressively than other major central banks, creating a stronger USD. This rate differential attracts investors looking for higher yields, pushing the dollar higher in what can become a bullish market for the USD. Forex traders monitor these developments closely, as higher US interest rates can significantly affect global forex dynamics.

How to trade US dollar

  1. Open an account to get started, or practice on a demo account
  2. Choose your forex trading platform
  3. Open, monitor, and close positions on USD pairs

Trading forex requires an account with a forex provider like tastyfx. Many traders also watch major forex pairs like EUR/USD and USD/JPY for potential opportunities based on economic events such as inflation releases or interest rate decisions. Economic events can produce more volatility for forex pairs, which can mean greater potential profits and losses as risks can increase at these times.

You can help develop your forex trading strategies using resources like tastyfx’s YouTube channel. Once your strategy is developed, you can follow the above steps to opening an account and getting started trading forex.

Your profit or loss is calculated according to your full position size. Leverage will magnify both your profits and losses. It’s important to manage your risks carefully as losses can exceed your deposit. Ensure you understand the risks and benefits associated with trading leveraged products before you start trading with them. Trade using money you’re comfortable losing.

Reviewed by:
Glen Frybarger
Senior Content Strategist, Chicago

This information has been prepared by tastyfx, a trading name of tastyfx LLC. This material does not contain a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for, a transaction in any financial instrument. You should not treat any opinion expressed in this material as a specific inducement to make any investment or follow any strategy, but only as an expression of opinion. This material does not consider your investment objectives, financial situation or needs and is not intended as recommendations appropriate for you. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the above information. tastyfx accepts no responsibility for any use that may be made of these comments and for any consequences that result. See our Summary Conflicts Policy, available on our website.